Polls are but a snapshot of yesterday's thinking and need to be
treated with caution remembering always that the election is 21
months away and seven days in politics is a long time.
Nevertheless the final TV1 poll for 2018 made for interesting
reading and, for what it is worth, here are my thoughts ...
will be buoyed/relieved and will enter the holiday
season with bragging rights. It has regained its
position as the largest preferred Party and is now polling ahead of
where it was at the election. It seems the JLR affair
has had minimal impact and, if anything, has strengthened Bridges'
hand although clearly he has yet to achieve cut-through with the
won't loose much sleep over the poll after-all,
they're in government and government is where the action
is. They too are ahead of where they were on at
the election although having shed a couple of percentage points
from their high. Clearly though some of the gloss
is wearing off ... that comes with the territory of being in
government. The Sroubek affair will not have
For me the real interest is what's happening with the minor
are now flirting with the moe having dropped 2
percentage points. I had always assumed their bedrock
support was in 6-7% range but that had never been tested with them
actually in government. I suspect the reasons for the drop
are threefold ... #1 minor parties in a coalition government
tend to come off second best ... #2 Labour will have poached
some of their soft support and #3 their drift to the hard
left, orchestrated by co-leader Marama Davidson, will have
alienated some of their moderate supporters.
There is a chance, albeit a small one (70-30) the next election
could see the Greens out of Parliament.
are now back under the threshold and the
question is will we see a repeat of 2011. Some of the
patience of 'his' true believers will be starting to wear thin with
their capitulation on the Maori seats issue; the meek acceptance of
the destruction of our oil and gas industry; 'his' unnecessary
involvement with the Sroubek affair and now the government's likely
signing up to the Compact on Migration at odds with their
anti-immigration stance. It seems their sole...